S320p.15 — Total solar irradiance reconstruction using artificial neural networks

Date & Time

Aug 10th at 6:00 PM until 7:30 PM




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Author(s): Ambelu Tebabal Yirdaw1

Institution(s): 1. Bahir Dar niversity

A feed-forward neural network which can account for nonlinear relationships was used to reconstruct total solar irradiance (TSI). A single layer feed forward neural network with back-propagation algorithm have been implemented for reconstructing daily total solar irradiance from daily photometric sunspot index, and core to wing ratio of Mg II index data. The data year from 1978 to 2013 was used for the training, validation and testing purpose. In order to obtain the optimum neural network for TSI reconstruction, the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and regression coefficient have been taken into account. We have carried out the analysis is made by comparing the reconstructed TSI from neural networks (NNs ) and TSI measurement from satellite. We have found out that the reconstructed TSI and the PMOD composite have the correlation coefficient of about R=0.9307 over the span of the recorded, 1978 to 2013. The NNs model output indicates that reconstructed TSI from solar proxies (photometric index and MgII ) can explain 86.6% of the variance of TSI. Neural network is able to recreate TSI observations on a time scale of a day. This reconstructed TSI using NNs further strengthens the view that surface magnetism indeed plays a dominant role in modulating solar irradiance.